Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer the stuff of science fiction — it has become one of the world’s most influential technologies. From chat programs that can create their own language to medical diagnostics, AI has progressed at an incredible pace over a very short period of time. As its reach grows, nations everywhere are racing against one another to dominate AI development, making it a new kind of global competition for strategic supremacy.
Rise of AI and national agendas
In 2022, OpenAI’s ChatGPT hit 100 million users in just two months, revealing how disruptive AI can be. Since then, governments and corporations have invested billions of dollars in AI innovation and research. The United States is the current leader in the space, with big companies such as Google, Microsoft, and NVIDIA developing massive AI models and processors. China is rapidly catching up with its New Generation AI Development Plan, seeking to take the crown by 2030. China’s biggest assets are its massive data assets and fast rise in AI publications and patents.
Others are getting into the race too. The European Union has an ethical and transparent AI systems strategy, and the United Kingdom is a world-leading AI innovation hub. India and Saudi Arabia are using AI in economic development in areas like agribusiness and energy. These diverse paths illustrate how AI leadership has come to the fore of economic great-power status and world influence.
Geopolitics and competition AI’s strategic value goes beyond the economic. It has also come to loom large in national security, the future of warfare, surveillance, and in cyber security. The U.S. has blocked exports of advanced AI chips to China in order to slow its military build-up, while both nations are heavily investing in military AI systems like surveillance drones that pilot themselves and predictive intelligence. There are some who term the scenario a contemporary-day “arms race” — except that instead of weapons of mass destruction, the competition is for algorithms and for data.
It is a double-edged proposition that poses threats as well as opportunities. The good news is that competition drives innovation and fast-paced progress. The bad is that it can evoke distrust and noncooperativeness, especially in the case of arms control or international regulations for safety. However, conferences like the AI Safety Summit in 2023 and cooperative efforts like the Global Partnership on AI (GPAI) show there can be at least a discussion, even between adversaries.
Ethics, Open-Source, and Global Responsibility
AI development also raises ethical issues about privacy, bias, fairness, and safety. The AI ethics guidelines for the world were embraced in 2021 by UNESCO, while the future AI Act of the EU has the objective of regulating high-risk AI applications. Responsible AI development is an edge to competition — those countries that develop transparent, reliable systems benefit more by their technologies being deployed more widely. The open-source AI has altered the dynamics as well. Such models as Meta’s LLaMA are offered free of charge for research and development purposes, making the smaller firms and nations competitive. Yet, the free availability raises the stakes for potential abuse, ranging from deepfakes to dangerous autonomics. Innovation and safety balancing will be among the most daunting tasks ahead.